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Message boards : Seventeen or Bust : Prime Guessing Game

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Profile Kevonni
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Joined: 20 Jun 13
Posts: 2
ID: 235937
Credit: 10,187,159
RAC: 0
321 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (96,287)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (186,337)ESP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (82,511)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (81,709)PPS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,980)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (428,513)SoB LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (989,706)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (21,331)TRP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (42,261)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (202,537)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,562)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (856,234)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (313,565)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (181,935)GFN Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,470,235)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (201,213)
Message 119084 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 8:49:28 UTC

Let's start guessing what the next prime will be like with the Fermat prime pool.

Profile JeppeSNProject donor
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Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1378
ID: 306875
Credit: 21,623,822
RAC: 2,050
Found 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (529,293)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (611,298)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (139,922)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (35,236)PPS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,594,179)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (212,242)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (237,390)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (145,419)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,212)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (342,501)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (109,455)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,037)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,113)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,129)GFN Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,674,106)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,614,290)
Message 119089 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 12:16:03 UTC - in response to Message 119084.

In the Fermat prime pool, people express their bids as b values (the b in b^(2^n)+1).

Here we want to guess for the next prime that eliminates any of the five remaining multipliers in the Sierpiński problem, I presume.

Should we state our guess as the value of the exponent n in the expression

k·2^n + 1,

or should we give the number of decimal digits?

/JeppeSN

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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Found 5 primes in the 2021 Tour de PrimesFound 5 mega primes in the 2021 Tour de PrimesThe "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 6 mega primesFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,822,730)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,624,591)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,021,269)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,145,754)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (16,008,485)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,197,957)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,291,181)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,007,110)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,252,256)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,084,329)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,911,985)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,061,196)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,885,121)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,118,303)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (76,733,355)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,445,029)
Message 119090 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 12:35:09 UTC

Date is another possibility, e.g., "We'll find the next prime in 2023."

Also, bear in mind that we're currently in the middle of a long double check of prior work, with much lower chances of finding a prime. While the numbers themselves are smaller (which increases chances), since the numbers have already been checked once, our chance of finding a prime is approximately 30 times lower than it normally would be.

Even without the double check, there were nine years between the discoveries of the last 2 primes. The gap between the 2 largest primes is pretty large: n=13M and n=31M.


____________
My lucky number is 75898524288+1

KeithProject donor
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Joined: 8 Dec 13
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ID: 284516
Credit: 412,432,810
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Discovered 1 mega primeFound 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 3 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,001,743)Cullen LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,267,089)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,005,551)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,010,594)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,667,933)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,032,097)SoB LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,042,754)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,002,093)SGS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,000,020)TRP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,002,149)Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,011,525)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,120,432)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,004,494)PPS Sieve Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (107,524,787)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,002,980)TRP Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,010,755)AP 26/27 Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (83,039,177)GFN Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (103,514,987)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (443,652)
Message 119092 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 12:54:11 UTC

The next K to be eliminated could be another possibility, or the date AND the next K.
____________
My Primes
Badge Score: 2*1 + 3*1 + 4*2 + 6*4 + 7*9 + 9*1 + 10*2 = 129

Chara34122
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Joined: 11 Feb 17
Posts: 64
ID: 490242
Credit: 11,185,202
RAC: 258
321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (195,322)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (181,773)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (239,556)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (179,944)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (317,100)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (321,756)SoB LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,769,386)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,500)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (388,159)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (456,830)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (117,044)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,952,453)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,000,299)PPS Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (101,130)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (169,806)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (380,579)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (292,160)
Message 119093 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:05:59 UTC
Last modified: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:48:08 UTC

I thought about it while I was participating in original SoB and my opinion was:
1. Next k would be 24737 or 55459 (but not 10223 because I did not know that it was PrimeGrid's part of search)
2. I expected it in the short period of time (n<2^25)

Now my expectation is:
1. One of these 2 k's also
2. n<2^26 (Maybe in 2024?)

Profile JeppeSNProject donor
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Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1378
ID: 306875
Credit: 21,623,822
RAC: 2,050
Found 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (529,293)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (611,298)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (139,922)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (35,236)PPS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,594,179)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (212,242)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (237,390)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (145,419)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,212)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (342,501)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (109,455)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,037)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,113)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,129)GFN Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,674,106)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,614,290)
Message 119095 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:17:49 UTC

It may be a matter of taste, but I find it uninteresting to bet on which k will be eliminated next (I was about to write "that is pure lottery", but gambling on the size of the next SoB prime is a lottery as well, I guess).

My guess for the exponent (of 2) of the next SoB prime shall be:

n = 17.8 M

that is k · 2^{17,800,000} + 1 for some k in { 21181; 22699; 24737; 55459; 67607 }.

I know I will win, and then Michael Goetz can predict when the leading edge will be near n = 17.8 M.

/JeppeSN

Profile JeppeSNProject donor
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Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1378
ID: 306875
Credit: 21,623,822
RAC: 2,050
Found 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (529,293)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (611,298)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (139,922)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (35,236)PPS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,594,179)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (212,242)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (237,390)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (145,419)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,212)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (342,501)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (109,455)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,037)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,113)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,129)GFN Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,674,106)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,614,290)
Message 119097 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:21:54 UTC - in response to Message 119093.


2. n<2^2^26 (Maybe in 2024?)


You mean the prime will be (just) below 2^(2^26), then what we usually call n (the n in k·2^n + 1) will be close to 2^26 = 67 million?

/JeppeSN

Chara34122
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Joined: 11 Feb 17
Posts: 64
ID: 490242
Credit: 11,185,202
RAC: 258
321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (195,322)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (181,773)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (239,556)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (179,944)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (317,100)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (321,756)SoB LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,769,386)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,500)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (388,159)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (456,830)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (117,044)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,952,453)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,000,299)PPS Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (101,130)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (169,806)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (380,579)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (292,160)
Message 119098 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:29:20 UTC - in response to Message 119097.
Last modified: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:48:48 UTC

n Just below 67000000. So I think. And 17.8 million range already passed or I mistake something?

I've corrected it.

Profile JeppeSNProject donor
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Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1378
ID: 306875
Credit: 21,623,822
RAC: 2,050
Found 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (529,293)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (611,298)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (139,922)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (35,236)PPS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,594,179)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (212,242)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (237,390)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (145,419)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,212)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (342,501)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (109,455)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,037)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,113)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,129)GFN Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,674,106)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,614,290)
Message 119101 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 14:39:59 UTC - in response to Message 119098.

n Just below 67000000. So I think. And 17.8 million range already passed or I mistake something?


You are right! My guess was meaningless :-(

The double-check is currently near n = 25 M according to stats_sob_llr, and the double check will end near n = 31.6 M.

I will come up with a meaningful guess at another time (I guess I committed hubris with the style in my post where I made the silly guess).

/JeppeSN

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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Credit: 236,922,854
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Found 5 primes in the 2021 Tour de PrimesFound 5 mega primes in the 2021 Tour de PrimesThe "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 6 mega primesFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,822,730)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,624,591)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,021,269)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,145,754)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (16,008,485)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,197,957)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,291,181)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,007,110)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,252,256)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,084,329)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,911,985)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,061,196)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,885,121)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,118,303)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (76,733,355)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,445,029)
Message 119102 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 15:09:20 UTC - in response to Message 119101.

...the double check will end near n = 31.6 M.


Nothing above 31M needs to be double checked. The 31M range was always PrimeGrid's, so the part that's done is fully double checked already.

The double check ends at n=30,999,908.
____________
My lucky number is 75898524288+1

Profile Kevonni
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Joined: 20 Jun 13
Posts: 2
ID: 235937
Credit: 10,187,159
RAC: 0
321 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (96,287)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (186,337)ESP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (82,511)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (81,709)PPS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,980)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (428,513)SoB LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (989,706)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (21,331)TRP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (42,261)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (202,537)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,562)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (856,234)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (313,565)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (181,935)GFN Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,470,235)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (201,213)
Message 119110 - Posted: 29 Jun 2018 | 1:23:21 UTC - in response to Message 119089.

The guess should be stated as the exponent that will eliminate the next k. I am personally betting on the range from 3700097 to 37911100.

Profile JeppeSNProject donor
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Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1378
ID: 306875
Credit: 21,623,822
RAC: 2,050
Found 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (529,293)Cullen LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (611,298)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (139,922)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (35,236)PPS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,594,179)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (212,242)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (237,390)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (145,419)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,212)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (342,501)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (109,455)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (175,037)PPS Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,113)AP 26/27 Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (12,129)GFN Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,674,106)PSA Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,614,290)
Message 119114 - Posted: 29 Jun 2018 | 6:47:53 UTC

OK, I will bring a valid bid, then: n = 48,400,000.

/JeppeSN

Message boards : Seventeen or Bust : Prime Guessing Game

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