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Message boards : Seventeen or Bust : The SOB Double Check will end... aka The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

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Profile JayProject donor
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Posts: 103
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Credit: 53,729,466
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321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,482)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (102,670)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,502)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (114,572)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (102,015)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (118,657)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (28,302,972)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,043)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,539)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (106,264)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (107,466)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (140,910)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,005,637)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,861)PPS Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,033,489)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (15,365,882)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (119,061)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,118)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (250,199)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (131,126)
Message 109520 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 14:24:24 UTC

Based on the rate so far (from Michael's x% complete posts) and wild predictions regarding the impact of future challenges and increasing technological capabilities, I'm going to predict the SOB Double Check will be complete on May 28, 2023.

Anyone else? What date are you predicting?

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,822,730)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,624,591)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,021,269)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,145,754)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (16,008,485)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,197,957)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,291,181)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,007,110)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,252,256)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,084,329)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,911,985)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,061,196)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,885,121)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,118,303)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (76,733,355)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,445,029)
Message 109524 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 14:52:32 UTC

It will be interesting to see which happens first: we finish the DC or Elon Musk successfully lands something on Mars. Not a person, but any sort of lander.

As for predictions, I think you're in the right ballpark.
____________
My lucky number is 75898524288+1

Michael Millerick
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Found 3 primes in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,063,954)Cullen LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,328,304)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,170,793)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,319,313)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (14,623,895)PSP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,012,651)SoB LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,064,898)SR5 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,085,475)SGS LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,320,684)TRP LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,740,707)Woodall LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,492,539)321 Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,440,175)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,911,344)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,077,092)PPS Sieve Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,200,870)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,034,014)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,070,774)AP 26/27 Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,442,696)GFN Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (33,288,606)PSA Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (52,866,806)
Message 109526 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 15:32:48 UTC

In order to help eliminate the computing time cost of data loss in the future, is there any chance that the complete result set be made available periodically for download? That way we'll have tons of users with the data to restore from in case anything ever does happen.
____________

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,822,730)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,624,591)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,021,269)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,145,754)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (16,008,485)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,197,957)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,291,181)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,007,110)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,252,256)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,084,329)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,911,985)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,061,196)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,885,121)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,118,303)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (76,733,355)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,445,029)
Message 109530 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 16:32:03 UTC - in response to Message 109526.

In order to help eliminate the computing time cost of data loss in the future, is there any chance that the complete result set be made available periodically for download? That way we'll have tons of users with the data to restore from in case anything ever does happen.


That's not a terrible idea.

Understand that both Jim and myself are really paranoid about business continuity, and it's hard to imagine any sort of disaster that would result in the data being lost. I can think of things that would shut PrimeGrid down permanently, but the data would survive such an event. I might need to use sneakernet to distribute the data (the proverbial station wagon filled with 9-track tapes), but short of a nuclear holocaust hitting multiple locations, the data is well preserved. And if there's s single event that takes out both the data center and the secondary storage site, which is hundreds of miles away, I suspect what's left of civilization won't be worrying about our data.

When 9/11 happened, I was working for a large company that had a substantial data center INSIDE one of the World Trade Center towers. The data center itself was destroyed, of course. All of our people working in that data center survived (it was on the 3rd floor of a 110 story building.) Our business didn't miss a beat. The tower came down, those computers stopped communicating, and our computers in other datacenters simply picked up the workload. PrimeGrid's disaster recovery plan isn't nearly as robust, but we won't have one of those "oh God, everything is lost" type of disasters. Worst case scenario, if there's still power and computers, we'll be able to get PrimeGrid up and running again, sooner or later, with minimal loss of data.

But it's not a terrible idea, and we'll give it some thought.


____________
My lucky number is 75898524288+1

Profile GrebulonerProject donor
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Discovered 1 mega primeFound 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 4 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 3 primes in the 2020 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,176,149)Cullen LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,858,937)ESP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,401,438)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,458,304)PPS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (33,262,524)PSP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,641,950)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,393,852)SR5 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (21,058,593)SGS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (15,790,620)TRP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,191,201)Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,066,992)321 Sieve Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (55,630,889)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,178,073)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (56,046,594)PPS Sieve Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (521,014,891)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,468,384)TRP Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,076,645)AP 26/27 Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (500,106,006)GFN Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (251,361,687)PSA Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (126,200,096)
Message 109537 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 18:15:15 UTC

Ever the optimist of enhanced CPU instruction extensions, I will say we'll finish February 2, 2022

I'm a fan of the sneakernet backup, I keep an encrypted backup drive in my work locker and someday I'll have a safety deposit box and leave one in there, too. How big is the Primegrid results database?
____________
Eating more cheese on Thursdays.

Profile Michael GoetzProject donor
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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,822,730)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,624,591)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,021,269)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,145,754)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (16,008,485)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,197,957)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,291,181)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,007,110)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,252,256)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,084,329)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,911,985)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,061,196)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,885,121)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,118,303)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (76,733,355)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,445,029)
Message 109538 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 19:13:29 UTC - in response to Message 109537.

Ever the optimist of enhanced CPU instruction extensions, I will say we'll finish February 2, 2022

I'm a fan of the sneakernet backup, I keep an encrypted backup drive in my work locker and someday I'll have a safety deposit box and leave one in there, too. How big is the Primegrid results database?


It's not that simple to answer, because there's lots of archived data that isn't in the database. An easier question is "How much disk space is used?" Less than 250 GB for BOINC. Less (a lot less) for PRPNet. Much of that is compressed. We could fit the whole thing on a thumb drive if we wanted.

As I said before, there's currently little risk of the data being lost. Almost everything exists in at least 4 locations -- 2 servers, an incremental cloud backup, and an offsite storage. Those backups are versioned, meaning there's multiple copies of each file. Even an encryption/malware attack would be survivable. Datacenter burns to the ground? Survivable. Rackspace folds up shop without warning (or we get locked out)? Survivable. Nuclear attack? Maybe survivable, maybe not. Depends on where the nukes fall. It will take at least two nukes in the right locations.





____________
My lucky number is 75898524288+1

KeithProject donor
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Discovered 1 mega primeFound 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 3 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,001,743)Cullen LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,267,089)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,005,551)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,010,594)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,667,933)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,032,097)SoB LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,042,754)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,002,093)SGS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,000,020)TRP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,002,149)Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,011,525)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,120,432)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,004,494)PPS Sieve Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (107,524,787)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,002,980)TRP Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,010,755)AP 26/27 Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (83,039,177)GFN Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (103,514,987)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (443,652)
Message 109539 - Posted: 23 Aug 2017 | 19:26:13 UTC - in response to Message 109520.

Based on the rate so far (from Michael's x% complete posts) and wild predictions regarding the impact of future challenges and increasing technological capabilities, I'm going to predict the SOB Double Check will be complete on May 28, 2023.

Anyone else? What date are you predicting?


Based upon the way PSP progressed (I know it's apples to oranges here) I would say that we would have all doublecheck units sent out for the first time by December 1, 2019. However, given how SoB works with wing-people and resends due to various task failures or abandonments I would say that it would take until April 1, 2021 to get all the results back.

Of course all of these predictions will be thrown out the window if someone finds a prime.
____________
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Badge Score: 2*1 + 3*1 + 4*2 + 6*4 + 7*9 + 9*1 + 10*2 = 129

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321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (587,721)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (434,353)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (228,370)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (133,139)PPS LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (822,953)PSP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (951,723)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,050,067)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (221,631)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (58,225)TRP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (542,327)Woodall LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (783,073)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (120,713)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (636,552)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (102,989)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (139,663)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (165,763)GFN Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,170,976)
Message 109619 - Posted: 26 Aug 2017 | 18:36:51 UTC

Meanwhile (probably my understanding is lacking here) it just happened to me: is The Prime Rank on the home correct for SOB? Just a consistency question, you know.

____________
I'm counting for science,
Points just make me sick.

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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,822,730)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,624,591)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,021,269)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,145,754)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (16,008,485)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,197,957)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,291,181)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,007,110)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,252,256)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,084,329)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,911,985)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,061,196)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,885,121)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,118,303)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (76,733,355)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,445,029)
Message 109631 - Posted: 27 Aug 2017 | 6:16:46 UTC - in response to Message 109619.

Meanwhile (probably my understanding is lacking here) it just happened to me: is The Prime Rank on the home correct for SOB? Just a consistency question, you know.


No.

It's still picking up the straggler in-progress tasks. Until those complete, the largest numbers still be worked on are technically leading edge tasks.
____________
My lucky number is 75898524288+1

whynot
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321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (587,721)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (434,353)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (228,370)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (133,139)PPS LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (822,953)PSP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (951,723)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,050,067)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (221,631)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (58,225)TRP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (542,327)Woodall LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (783,073)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (120,713)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (636,552)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (102,989)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (139,663)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (165,763)GFN Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,170,976)
Message 109835 - Posted: 2 Sep 2017 | 17:14:14 UTC

Well, that's what I've expected. I understand that making it dynamic is too much coding (besides being useless). However, for sake of integrity, footnote it maybe?

____________
I'm counting for science,
Points just make me sick.

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Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (38,954)ESP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (942,185)PPS LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (132,754,154)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (489,641)SoB LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,960,428)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,694,695)SGS LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (563,819)TRP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,592,743)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (395,205)PPS Sieve Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (229,811,183)TRP Sieve (suspended) Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (669,191)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (15,039,960)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (52,138,286)
Message 115050 - Posted: 16 Feb 2018 | 8:10:07 UTC

Considering the insanity that was the SoB challenge this January, and assuming (and hoping and praying) that it's done every year until it's done, my basic graphing skills and line drawing points me to April 22, 2019 .

It's pretty amazing that the 11 or so percentage points that were double checked in half a month were almost equivalent to the half a year the previous 11 took. And it seems like the rate of SoB double check is slightly higher now, even after the challenge and during a TdP.

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ESP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (16,306)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (10,411)PPS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (52,599)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (11,350)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (24,946)321 Sieve Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (24,395)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (58,434)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (515,763)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (177,892)GFN Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (596,181)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (243,010)
Message 115055 - Posted: 16 Feb 2018 | 11:10:29 UTC
Last modified: 16 Feb 2018 | 11:10:50 UTC

November 2020
____________
(252^6548-1)^2-2 is prime! Small, but mine.
134137784^32768+1(DC)
107853608^8192+1(DC)
10465966^16384+1(DC)

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321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (195,322)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (181,773)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (239,556)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (179,944)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (317,100)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (321,756)SoB LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,769,386)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,500)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (388,159)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (456,830)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (117,044)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,952,453)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,000,299)PPS Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (101,130)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (169,806)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (380,579)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (292,160)
Message 115650 - Posted: 1 Mar 2018 | 9:32:59 UTC

I agree that chalenge makes it quicker. So I think: June 4, 2019.

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Discovered 3 mega primes2018 Tour de Primes highest prime count2018 Tour de Primes highest prime scoreFound 50 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de Primes Mountain StageFound 1 mega prime in the 2018 Tour de Primes Mountain StageFound 5 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes Mountain StageFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (42,076,388)Cullen LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,909,282)ESP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (23,844,529)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (25,377,013)PPS LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (166,146,366)PSP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (31,092,711)SoB LLR Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (203,308,549)SR5 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (26,556,859)SGS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (21,701,751)TRP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (33,473,671)Woodall LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,265,470)321 Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (27,103,289)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (126,821,599)PPS Sieve Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (205,573,693)AP 26/27 Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (121,868,149)GFN Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (251,696,073)PSA Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (64,141,506)
Message 115855 - Posted: 7 Mar 2018 | 20:18:14 UTC - in response to Message 115650.

I would not be so optimistic. I have been processing around 1000 SOB per month since early December. But that will end this month as we decommission our VMs. I don't know what part of the monthly SOB processing that means, but it should be significant. Better wait a couple of months to see what the rate is at that time.

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Discovered 7 mega primesEliminated 4 conjecture "k"sFound 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de Primes Mountain Stage2019 Tour de Primes largest primeFound 4 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes Mountain StageFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (100,425,701)Cullen LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (60,526,018)ESP LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,853,190)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,309,119)PPS LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (122,476,468)PSP LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,563,867)SoB LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (101,573,710)SR5 LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (101,883,529)SGS LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (55,573,529)TPS LLR (retired) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (43,033)TRP LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (100,338,924)Woodall LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,956,094)321 Sieve Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (115,948,450)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,142,109)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,504,945)PPS Sieve Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (513,057,580)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,288,222)TRP Sieve (suspended) Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,149,354)AP 26/27 Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (232,724,773)GFN Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (764,816,358)PSA Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (535,232,795)
Message 115856 - Posted: 7 Mar 2018 | 20:39:56 UTC - in response to Message 115855.
Last modified: 7 Mar 2018 | 20:40:26 UTC

... I have been processing around 1000 SOB per month since early December. But that will end this month as we decommission our VMs. I don't know what part of the monthly SOB processing that means, but it should be significant...

http://www.primegrid.com/server_status_tasks.php

Note that February had very low performance as many participants were focusing on PPS/PPSE/PPSMega.
And, first half of January had extra performance due to SoB challenge.




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Discovered the World's First AP27!!!Discovered 9 mega primesDiscovered 1 AP272018 Tour de Primes largest primeFound 4 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,681,253)Cullen LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (38,463,074)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,404,450)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,386,197)PPS LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (53,649,559)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,863,505)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (36,772,233)SR5 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,519,461)SGS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,250,624)TRP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (28,497,135)Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,062,771)321 Sieve Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,141,753)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,892,369)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,515,338)PPS Sieve Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (841,182,485)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (121,416)AP 26/27 Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (89,993,137)GFN Double Ruby: Earned 2,000,000,000 credits (3,900,702,813)
Message 115861 - Posted: 7 Mar 2018 | 23:27:32 UTC

September 2019
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My lucky numbers 10590941048576+1 and 224584605939537911+81292139*23#*n for n=0..26

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Found 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (203,247)PPS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,314,588)SoB LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (65,864,487)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (65,538)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,283,307)AP 26/27 Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,598,082)GFN Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (41,179)
Message 115867 - Posted: 8 Mar 2018 | 4:52:33 UTC

I've thrown my roughly 50 cores (Of widely varying quality) on the fire, but we haven't gone from 30% -> 31% in nearly 2 weeks, So best-case 24% per year from 'normal' operation, and a 13% or so from a challenge, gives us pretty close to 2 years from now, assuming 2 more challenges in those time frames.

I'm actually going to throw down a really shady guess and say on the 9th day of the 2020 SOB challenge.

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321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (195,322)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (181,773)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (239,556)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (179,944)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (317,100)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (321,756)SoB LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,769,386)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,500)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (388,159)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (456,830)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (117,044)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,952,453)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,000,299)PPS Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (101,130)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (169,806)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (380,579)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (292,160)
Message 127819 - Posted: 7 Mar 2019 | 20:06:13 UTC

Will the last unfinished WUs be finished manually? The finish date depends on it.

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Discovered 4 mega primesEliminated 1 conjecture "k"Discovered 1 AP26Found 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 2 primes in the 2020 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2020 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes Mountain StageFound 1 mega prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes Mountain Stage321 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,014,730)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,080,460)ESP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (502,325)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,000,054)PPS LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (95,748,889)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (168,701)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (39,985,666)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (16,535,456)SGS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (18,577,642)TRP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (525,711)Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (15,028,246)321 Sieve Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,084,376)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,606,749)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (23,323,949)AP 26/27 Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (232,452,285)GFN Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (146,257,211)PSA Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (52,891,089)
Message 129661 - Posted: 20 May 2019 | 18:11:50 UTC

July 23rd, 2019

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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,822,730)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,624,591)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,021,269)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,145,754)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (16,008,485)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,197,957)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,291,181)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,007,110)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,252,256)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,084,329)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,911,985)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,061,196)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,885,121)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,118,303)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (76,733,355)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,445,029)
Message 129662 - Posted: 20 May 2019 | 18:30:17 UTC - in response to Message 127819.

Will the last unfinished WUs be finished manually? The finish date depends on it.


Probably.

There's 2 different finish dates: When the last DC tasks are initially sent out, and we start working once again on real leading edge candidates, and when (probably 3 to 6 months later) the wingmen finally finish working on the DC tasks.

We are down to 5083 candidates that have not yet been turned into tasks, out of a total of 149364 candidates that needed to be checked. We're burning through about 100 each day, give or take.
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321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,482)Cullen LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (102,670)ESP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,502)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (114,572)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (102,015)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (118,657)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (28,302,972)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,043)SGS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,539)TRP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (106,264)Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (107,466)321 Sieve Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (140,910)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,005,637)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (104,861)PPS Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,033,489)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (15,365,882)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (119,061)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (105,118)GFN Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (250,199)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (131,126)
Message 133697 - Posted: 10 Oct 2019 | 13:14:34 UTC - in response to Message 115861.

September 2019



A super quick perusal of the responses looks like this one is the closest!

Congratulations! You win, uh, some brief mention of your successful prediction...

Great job to everyone who helped on the double check. Lets keep at it and finish the conjecture!

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Discovered 3 mega primes2018 Tour de Primes highest prime count2018 Tour de Primes highest prime scoreFound 50 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de Primes Mountain StageFound 1 mega prime in the 2018 Tour de Primes Mountain StageFound 5 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de Primes Mountain StageFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (42,076,388)Cullen LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,909,282)ESP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (23,844,529)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (25,377,013)PPS LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (166,146,366)PSP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (31,092,711)SoB LLR Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (203,308,549)SR5 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (26,556,859)SGS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (21,701,751)TRP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (33,473,671)Woodall LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,265,470)321 Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (27,103,289)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (126,821,599)PPS Sieve Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (205,573,693)AP 26/27 Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (121,868,149)GFN Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (251,696,073)PSA Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (64,141,506)
Message 133706 - Posted: 10 Oct 2019 | 16:07:18 UTC - in response to Message 133697.

September 2019



A super quick perusal of the responses looks like this one is the closest!

Congratulations! You win, uh, some brief mention of your successful prediction...

Great job to everyone who helped on the double check. Lets keep at it and finish the conjecture!

Is it a precise prediction, or another outstanding piece of luck ? Seeing who proposed this date, both are probably true ;-)

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321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,228)Cullen LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (36,962)ESP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (36,309)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (22,645)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (219,290)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,559)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (138,888)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (64,280)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (35,164)TRP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (67,784)Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (40,976)321 Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (506,814)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (30,033)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (825,895)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (141,505)GFN Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (859,368)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (373,034)
Message 140433 - Posted: 24 May 2020 | 9:57:45 UTC - in response to Message 109524.
Last modified: 24 May 2020 | 9:59:21 UTC

It will be interesting to see which happens first: we finish the DC or Elon Musk successfully lands something on Mars. Not a person, but any sort of lander.

As for predictions, I think you're in the right ballpark.


Was looking through old posts, and of course we finished it earlier than Elon Musk :P

Also,
Understand that both Jim and myself are really paranoid about business continuity, and it's hard to imagine any sort of disaster that would result in the data being lost. I can think of things that would shut PrimeGrid down permanently, but the data would survive such an event. I might need to use sneakernet to distribute the data (the proverbial station wagon filled with 9-track tapes), but short of a nuclear holocaust hitting multiple locations, the data is well preserved. And if there's s single event that takes out both the data center and the secondary storage site, which is hundreds of miles away, I suspect what's left of civilization won't be worrying about our data.

What would shut down PG permanently? Just asking.
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Proth "SoB": 44243*2^440969+1


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The "Shut up already!" badge:  This loud mouth has mansplained on the forums over 10 thousand times!  Sheesh!!!Discovered the World's First GFN-19 prime!!!Discovered 1 mega primeFound 1 prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,822,730)Cullen LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,624,591)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,021,269)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,145,754)PPS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (16,008,485)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,197,957)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (34,291,181)SR5 LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,007,110)SGS LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (3,252,256)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,084,329)Woodall LLR Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,911,985)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,061,196)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,170,256)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,059,304)PPS Sieve Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (22,885,121)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,035,522)TRP Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,051,121)AP 26/27 Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,118,303)GFN Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (76,733,355)PSA Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,445,029)
Message 140437 - Posted: 24 May 2020 | 11:53:03 UTC - in response to Message 140433.

It will be interesting to see which happens first: we finish the DC or Elon Musk successfully lands something on Mars. Not a person, but any sort of lander.

As for predictions, I think you're in the right ballpark.


Was looking through old posts, and of course we finished it earlier than Elon Musk :P

Also,
Understand that both Jim and myself are really paranoid about business continuity, and it's hard to imagine any sort of disaster that would result in the data being lost. I can think of things that would shut PrimeGrid down permanently, but the data would survive such an event. I might need to use sneakernet to distribute the data (the proverbial station wagon filled with 9-track tapes), but short of a nuclear holocaust hitting multiple locations, the data is well preserved. And if there's s single event that takes out both the data center and the secondary storage site, which is hundreds of miles away, I suspect what's left of civilization won't be worrying about our data.

What would shut down PG permanently? Just asking.


Rytis dies of Covid-19? Everyone gets bored and stops crunching? All the admins get tired and nobody else wants to do it? World War III? Economic disruption from the pandemic is so bad that we can't afford to keep the project running?

The USUAL things that kill a project are either "disk crashed and I lost all the data", or "server died and I can't afford to replace it." Those are not things most hobbyists plan for (or even most University-run projects). PrimeGrid's pretty well protected against that kind of failure.
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321 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,228)Cullen LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (36,962)ESP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (36,309)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (22,645)PPS LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (219,290)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (100,559)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (138,888)SR5 LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (64,280)SGS LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (35,164)TRP LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (67,784)Woodall LLR Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (40,976)321 Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (506,814)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (30,033)PPS Sieve Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (825,895)AP 26/27 Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (141,505)GFN Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (859,368)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (373,034)
Message 140438 - Posted: 24 May 2020 | 12:58:48 UTC - in response to Message 140437.

It will be interesting to see which happens first: we finish the DC or Elon Musk successfully lands something on Mars. Not a person, but any sort of lander.

As for predictions, I think you're in the right ballpark.


Was looking through old posts, and of course we finished it earlier than Elon Musk :P

Also,
Understand that both Jim and myself are really paranoid about business continuity, and it's hard to imagine any sort of disaster that would result in the data being lost. I can think of things that would shut PrimeGrid down permanently, but the data would survive such an event. I might need to use sneakernet to distribute the data (the proverbial station wagon filled with 9-track tapes), but short of a nuclear holocaust hitting multiple locations, the data is well preserved. And if there's s single event that takes out both the data center and the secondary storage site, which is hundreds of miles away, I suspect what's left of civilization won't be worrying about our data.

What would shut down PG permanently? Just asking.


Rytis dies of Covid-19? Everyone gets bored and stops crunching? All the admins get tired and nobody else wants to do it? World War III? Economic disruption from the pandemic is so bad that we can't afford to keep the project running?

The USUAL things that kill a project are either "disk crashed and I lost all the data", or "server died and I can't afford to replace it." Those are not things most hobbyists plan for (or even most University-run projects). PrimeGrid's pretty well protected against that kind of failure.


Huge oof on the second and fourth. 🤣🤣🤣
Also, isn't the fifth a temporary shutdown?
I never knew BOINC projects were so "vulnerable" 😂
____________
SHSID Electronics Group
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GFN-14: 50103906^16384+1
Proth "SoB": 44243*2^440969+1


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Found 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,042,688)Cullen LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,617,541)ESP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,303,526)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,202,873)PPS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (6,100,156)PSP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,513,728)SoB LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (8,851,996)SR5 LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,199,189)SGS LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,100,018)TRP LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,405,027)Woodall LLR Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (5,491,055)321 Sieve Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,003,334)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (268,250)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,000,502)PPS Sieve Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (306,761,000)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,000,133)TRP Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,000,970)AP 26/27 Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (200,128,500)GFN Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (138,157,354)PSA Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (200,000,001)
Message 140444 - Posted: 24 May 2020 | 19:33:19 UTC

Nothing is forever. We learn this in life.

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Found 1 prime in the 2019 Tour de PrimesESP LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,611,126)PPS LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,350,616)PSP LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (273,295)SoB LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,209,000)SR5 LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (112,905)TRP LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,540,429)321 Sieve Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,633,882)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (64,186)TRP Sieve (suspended) Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (259,649)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (456,059)
Message 140453 - Posted: 25 May 2020 | 13:27:34 UTC - in response to Message 140438.

I never knew BOINC projects were so "vulnerable" 😂


They are :( ... a classic example of a project disappering in a blink of an eye, is the former RieselSieve.com project... It took quite a while, to convince the admins back then, that RieselSieve was gone and PG could/should overtake the effort. No one has revealed what happened, except a few different conspiracy theories, like CIA or FBI shutting down RieselSieve, but no proves has been delivered to support that theory. Maybe they just found a MegaPrime and decided to quit or they ran out of means to continue the effort - who knows. They sure did vanish from one moment to the next. Thankfully PG eventually overtook the conjecture and work resumed for TRP :)

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Discovered 4 mega primesFound 12 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 6 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 7 primes in the 2020 Tour de PrimesFound 2 mega primes in the 2020 Tour de PrimesFound 1 prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes Mountain Stage321 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (27,706,712)Cullen LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (53,564,865)ESP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (27,031,739)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (21,469,934)PPS LLR Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (118,931,263)PSP LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (61,264,776)SoB LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (50,359,421)SR5 LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (55,507,662)SGS LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (56,169,106)TPS LLR (retired) Bronze: Earned 10,000 credits (76,266)TRP LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (63,136,844)Woodall LLR Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (51,747,294)321 Sieve Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (205,512,337)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (35,459,921)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (103,015,099)PPS Sieve Double Ruby: Earned 2,000,000,000 credits (3,415,323,096)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,101,054)TRP Sieve (suspended) Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (25,930,215)AP 26/27 Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (194,589,741)GFN Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (501,633,831)PSA Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (102,293,265)
Message 141067 - Posted: 24 Jun 2020 | 12:53:25 UTC

Oh yes I remember RieselSieve. I donated funds to the project admin, B2, to buy some RAM sticks then the project blocked internet traffic from Australia so my world rank dropped. Then the project just went dark. Not impressed.

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321 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (538,216)Cullen LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,169,946)ESP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (636,842)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (212,232)PPS LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (883,715)PSP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (663,928)SoB LLR Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (217,346)SR5 LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (531,229)SGS LLR Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,042,382)TRP LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (561,429)Woodall LLR Gold: Earned 500,000 credits (781,741)321 Sieve Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,107,153)PPS Sieve Amethyst: Earned 1,000,000 credits (1,045,010)AP 26/27 Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (2,470,273)GFN Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (7,129,018)PSA Silver: Earned 100,000 credits (244,815)
Message 142855 - Posted: 31 Aug 2020 | 17:07:51 UTC

The doubleckecking probably is in regard to work already done by Rieselsieve? Are these doublechecks doublechecked at PG as well? Or are these special tasks that are only run once and if same result as Rieselsieve they're considered authorative?
____________
Primes: 1281979 & 12+8+1979 & 1+2+8+1+9+7+9 & 1^2+2^2+8^2+1^2+9^2+7^2+9^2 & 12*8+19*79 & 12^8-1979 & 1281979 + 4 (cousin prime)

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Discovered 1 mega primeFound 2 primes in the 2018 Tour de PrimesFound 4 primes in the 2019 Tour de PrimesFound 3 primes in the 2020 Tour de PrimesFound 1 mega prime in the 2020 Tour de Primes321 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,176,149)Cullen LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,858,937)ESP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,401,438)Generalized Cullen/Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (11,458,304)PPS LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (33,262,524)PSP LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (12,641,950)SoB LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,393,852)SR5 LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (21,058,593)SGS LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (15,790,620)TRP LLR Sapphire: Earned 20,000,000 credits (20,191,201)Woodall LLR Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (13,066,992)321 Sieve Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (55,630,889)Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Ruby: Earned 2,000,000 credits (4,178,073)Generalized Cullen/Woodall Sieve (suspended) Emerald: Earned 50,000,000 credits (56,046,594)PPS Sieve Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (521,014,891)Sierpinski (ESP/PSP/SoB) Sieve (suspended) Turquoise: Earned 5,000,000 credits (9,468,384)TRP Sieve (suspended) Jade: Earned 10,000,000 credits (10,076,645)AP 26/27 Double Gold: Earned 500,000,000 credits (500,106,006)GFN Double Silver: Earned 200,000,000 credits (251,361,687)PSA Double Bronze: Earned 100,000,000 credits (126,200,096)
Message 142856 - Posted: 31 Aug 2020 | 18:15:51 UTC - in response to Message 142855.

The doubleckecking probably is in regard to work already done by Rieselsieve? Are these doublechecks doublechecked at PG as well? Or are these special tasks that are only run once and if same result as Rieselsieve they're considered authorative?


It was a double-check of salvaged work residues that had not yet been checked (or were not recorded as checked) during the original RS time. There were also plenty of previously completed ranges for which no residues were found and regular-style 2 user WUs were produced. The original double check thread has more info on the original situation.

Residues are built from steps in the calculation. The probability that two computers make the exact same error(s) in the same place(s) of a workunit is infinitesimal.*

*A case could be made that two identical CPUs with identical hardware bugs would do the wrong thing and match (see: Pentium FDIV bug), but it's been decades since an error of that magnitude has surfaced in retail hardware. The high diversity of modern CPUs minimizes the possibility that these bugs go undiscovered, as a CPU type with PG-significant errors would consistently fail validation across the domain. (In fact, PG recently saw something like this with AMD Navi GPUs, though it was really a software incompatibility issue, which happens, particularly with AMD).
____________
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Message boards : Seventeen or Bust : The SOB Double Check will end... aka The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

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